Reports of the Card’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated: Modern Issuing Set to Smash $4.2 Billion

In a fintech landscape obsessed with the next disruption—be it stablecoins, account-to-account (A2A) payments, or open banking—the humble payment card has frequently been written off as a legacy relic.

However, new data from Juniper Research suggests the sector is not only surviving but entering a period of aggressive expansion, with the modern card issuing market projected to surge from $1.8billion in 2025 to over $4.2billion by 2030.

Speaking to The Fintech Times, Jawad Jahan, research analyst at Juniper Research, explained that the definition of a ‘card’ is undergoing a fundamental shift. The physical piece of plastic is taking a backseat to API-driven, digital-first infrastructure that allows brands, fintechs, and non-financial platforms to deploy payment products instantly.

“What we define as a modern card issuing platform is a modern card issuer that issues a card that is digital-first,” Jahan clarified. He noted that while physical cards remain a factor, the real velocity is in virtual assets that can be instantly provisioned into mobile wallets. This distinction is vital; it means that transaction volume attributed to digital wallets often still rides on card rails, settling as a card transaction on the backend.

The Drivers of Growth

This API-led approach has cracked open sectors previously underserved by traditional banking. Jahan pointed to the gig economy—citing platforms like Uber and Lyft—where embedded finance allows for instant driver payouts. Furthermore, the B2B sector is proving to be a powerhouse for growth. Companies are increasingly utilising virtual cards for spend management, issuing unique tokens for specific subscriptions or departments to tighten control and visibility.

“We are definitely seeing that in the B2B sector,” Jahan said, adding that commercial ticket sizes offer issuers significantly higher interchange revenue opportunities compared to consumer spend. This shift towards tokenised, programmable payments allows businesses to manage expenses with granular precision, a capability that traditional corporate cards struggled to offer.

The Crypto Conundrum

Perhaps the most counterintuitive driver of card growth is the very technology often touted to replace it: cryptocurrency. Despite the noise surrounding stablecoins and blockchain settlements, the lack of acceptance infrastructure means crypto currently relies on cards to bridge the gap to the real world. Jahan highlighted the rise of “crypto-enabled cards” as a primary conduit for usage.

“Stablecoins and account-to-account technologies are just facilitating new use cases,” Jahan argued. He explained that for a stablecoin to reach mainstream attention, it needs a conduit to propagate. Currently, that conduit is the card network. Whether it is Kraken or other industry players, the market is seeing a push for debit facilities that allow users to custody their own crypto assets while spending fiat at the point of sale.

“These technologies need a medium almost to propagate properly,” Jahan added, noting that consumers want the ability to spend instantly without waiting for complex off-ramping processes. By integrating with the card schemes, crypto assets effectively borrow the trust and global acceptance network of Visa and Mastercard.

Infrastructure vs. Adoption

When pressed on whether a major ecosystem shift—such as a hypothetical Amazon stablecoin—could derail the 2030 forecast, Jahan remained sceptical of any immediate replacement of current rails. He emphasised the friction involved in onboarding consumers to entirely new payment systems that lack universal acceptance.

“The actual payment rails are still being built,” he told The Fintech Times, suggesting that while backend interbank settlements might move to blockchain to save costs—a trend currently visible among major investment banks—the consumer-facing front end will likely remain card-dominated for the foreseeable future.

“I think right now the rails aren’t there yet,” Jahan said regarding a purely stablecoin-based economy. “Consumers aren’t moving away from cards in a hurry.”

Regional Nuances

The growth story presented by the report is two-fold. In mature markets like North America and Europe, growth stems from innovation—embedded finance, renewal cycles, and digital issuance. In emerging markets, the narrative remains one of financial inclusion, where debit cards act as the primary entry point for the unbanked to access the digital economy.

Ultimately, the report underscores that the battle for payments is not a zero-sum game between old and new rails, but a convergence. Modern card issuing platforms are evolving into data-rich ecosystems that offer more than just payments. As Jahan concluded, while he hopes to see new rails built within five years, the immediate future belongs to the platforms that can bridge the gap between complex backend technology and a seamless consumer experience—a role the ‘card’, in its digital form, seems perfectly positioned to play.

View the whole report here