Global payments revenue is projected to reach $2.4trillion by 2029, but the annual growth rate is expected to slow to four per cent over the next five years, down from 8.8 per cent since 2019. The forecast comes from the 23rd annual ‘Global Payments Report’ by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), which identifies a foundational reset in the industry driven by new technologies like agentic AI and real-time payments.
The report, titled ‘The Future Is (Anything but) Stable’, draws on BCG’s proprietary Global Payments Model covering over 60 economies. While the overall growth rate is moderating as deposit margin tailwinds from higher interest rates fade, the analysis indicates that transaction-based revenues will remain strong. Latin America is projected to lead in overall revenue growth at 7.9 per cent annually from 2024 to 2029, followed by the Middle East and Africa at 6.8 per cent.
“This is a turning point for the industry,” said Inderpreet Batra, BCG managing director and senior partner and global head of the firm’s payments and fintech segment. “Traditional growth levers are losing force, but new drivers including agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation are rapidly coming into focus. The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade.”
Agentic AI and real-time payments to drive change
A key force reshaping the sector is agentic AI, which the report finds is set to influence over $1trillion in e-commerce spending. BCG research indicates that 81 per cent of US consumers expect to use agentic AI tools for shopping, a shift that could shape more than half of all online purchases in the near future.
The report also highlights the rapid growth of real-time account-to-account (A2A) payments, with global volumes rising 40 per cent in 2024. These systems now account for approximately a quarter of all digital retail payments worldwide, with adoption already exceeding 50 per cent of transactions in markets like India and Brazil. In the Middle East and Africa, where real-time systems are still emerging, the report projects adoption will reach more than 50 per cent by 2030.
The rise of payments fintechs and digital currencies
Payments-focused fintechs continue to grow at a rapid pace, generating $176billion in revenue in 2024 and expanding at 23 per cent annually, according to the report. This segment has attracted over $135billion in equity funding over the past 25 years and now makes up 45 per cent of total fintech revenue.
The study also examined the role of digital currencies, noting that stablecoins generated more than $26trillion in transaction volume in 2024. However, real-world payments still account for only one per cent of that total, with the vast majority of activity remaining tied to cryptocurrency trading.
“We’re entering an era where growth and complexity go hand in hand,” said Markus Ampenberger, a BCG managing director and partner. “The next winners in payments won’t just be fast adopters of technology. They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business and operating models, and customer value propositions.”
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